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U.S. Edition Est. 2026 Oct. 18, 2026

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71% of Americans Doubt Trump Will Deliver His Proposed $5,000 Dividend, Poll Finds

An NBC News Decision Desk poll released Oct. 18 found that 71% of Americans do not believe they will receive President Trump's proposed $5,000 dividend check, an idea he tied to Republicans keeping control of Congress in the Nov. 3 midterms.

Stacks of U.S. hundred-dollar bills fanned out on a dark wooden desk, shallow depth of field

Most Americans do not believe they will ever see the $5,000 dividend check President Donald Trump has promised, according to a new national poll released Oct. 18.

The NBC News Decision Desk poll, conducted with SurveyMonkey, found that 42% of respondents “definitely” do not think they will receive the payment and 29% said they “probably” will not, a combined 71% who doubt Trump will deliver. Only 14% said they believe the check will arrive.

Trump announced the idea at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas, pledging to pay $5,000 to every American adult if Republicans keep control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Experts have estimated the dividend would cost about $1.2 trillion, and Congress would have to approve the payments before any money goes out.

An open mailbox holding white envelopes on a suburban residential street

The proposal arrived as Republicans face difficult headwinds in the midterms, including the ongoing war with Iran and the resulting spike in gas and diesel prices that has strained household budgets.

Democrats and some Republicans push back

Democrats attacked the proposal. Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, called it a “political bribe,” while Rep. Dan Goldman of New York described it as “corrupt and blatantly illegal.”

Some Republicans pushed back as well. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warned it could “lead to more debt and inflation,” and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine said in a statement that spending decisions “should not appear to be tied to election results.”

Trump has previously floated similar ideas, including tariff dividend checks and DOGE stimulus checks, that never materialized.

A shopper's hands pushing a grocery cart full of produce and eggs down a supermarket aisle

The same poll shows a grim mood

The survey also found that 71% of adults say the country is on the “wrong track,” the highest share of Trump’s second term in NBC polling. Trump’s approval rating stood at 34%, a second-term low, while 51% of respondents said they “strongly disapprove” of his performance, also a second-term high.

Asked which party they want in control of Congress during the final years of Trump’s second term, 55% of registered voters chose Democrats. Neither party is viewed favorably: 43% of adults view the Democratic Party favorably, compared with 37% for Republicans.

A row of curtained voting booths in a polling place with an American flag in the corner

The poll surveyed 19,135 adults from Sept. 28 to Oct. 12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Reporting based on coverage by USA Today.