U.S. Jobless Claims Fall to 194,000, Nearing a 57-Year Low
New unemployment claims dropped by 6,000 last week to a level close to the lowest since 1969, pointing to rare layoffs even as hiring stays slow and the Federal Reserve weighs its next rate move.
Americans filed 194,000 new claims for unemployment benefits in the week ended Oct. 17, down 6,000 from the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday, a level close to a 57-year low.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 claims. The latest reading sits near the 189,000 level touched in mid-July, which was the lowest reading since 1969, and points to a labor market where layoffs remain rare. Rising profits and firm domestic demand are shielding workers from job cuts, economists said.
Low-hire, low-fire
The claims data covered the survey week the government uses for the payrolls count in October’s employment report. Payrolls grew by 29,000 jobs in September after rebounding by 133,000 in August, a near stall that cooled bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike. Economists describe the market as “low-hire, low-fire”: uncertainty tied to the war and tariffs on imports has stymied hiring even as employers hold on to existing staff.
Continuing claims, a gauge of hiring, rose by 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.728 million in the week ended Oct. 10, a sign that some job seekers are taking longer to find work. The median duration of unemployment reached 11.5 weeks in September, near a four-and-a-half-year high, though the unemployment rate stood at 4.2 percent. Some of the long-term jobless may also have exhausted their benefits, which are limited to 26 weeks in most states.
What the Fed is watching
The report landed as investors brace for the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week. The central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point in September, to a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent, the first increase since 2023. Economists expect policymakers to hold rates steady next week and consider another increase in December, with inflation still running above the Fed’s 2 percent target: consumer prices rose 3.7 percent over the year through September.
Weekly claims below 200,000 have historically marked a labor market with little stress, and this week’s figure fits that pattern even as hiring stays muted.
Reporting based on coverage by Reuters.
