Early Voting Surges Two Weeks Before Midterms: Texas Up 74 Percent, Kansas More Than Doubles

Early voting is surging in the states expected to decide control of the U.S. Senate, with Texas up 74 percent over 2022 and Kansas more than doubling its early turnout, according to an Associated Press analysis of ballots cast two weeks before Election Day.

More than 13 million mail-in and early in-person votes have been cast nationally, compared with 9 million at the same point in 2022, the AP found. In most of the battleground states, Republicans account for a smaller share of advance voters than they did four years ago.

The AP analysis is based on data through Tuesday. It notes that part of the national increase reflects states that expanded early voting opportunities since 2022 and others that made more of their voting data available.

What is driving the turnout

The AP analysis connects the surge to dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, the high cost of living and elevated gas and diesel prices, which the analysis links in part to the war with Iran. The backlash has forced Republicans to defend states they did not expect to contest this year, the AP reports.

Midterm elections typically favor the party out of power in Washington. This cycle, Republicans control both chambers of Congress and the White House, the reverse of 2022, when Democrats were in charge. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, where Democrats are trying to flip GOP-held seats in Texas, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio.

The state races pulling voters in

In Texas, where early in-person voting began Monday, nearly 1 million ballots have already been cast, up from roughly 550,000 at the same stage in 2022. The Senate race pits Democrat James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, who defeated incumbent John Cornyn in a primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement. Democrats are targeting Paxton over corruption allegations and his impeachment by the Texas Legislature, from which he was acquitted. Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in more than three decades. Incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.

In Kansas, where Republicans have spent close to $12 million to defend Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton, more than 55,000 people have voted so far, more than double the 27,000 at this point in 2022. Trump held a rally in the state on Monday. In 2022, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly narrowly won reelection while Republican Sen. Jerry Moran won easily.

Ohio has seen 156,000 more ballots cast than at the same point in 2022, a 30 percent increase, with spending on the Ohio Senate race approaching $500 million, according to AdImpact. Ohio has also changed its voting rules since 2022, eliminating the grace period for receiving mail ballots. In Maine, early ballots are up 39 percent in the race between five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson.

The gains are not universal. In Michigan and Georgia, where Democrats are defending Senate seats, early vote totals are high but similar to 2022 (both states set midterm records that year, Michigan with reproductive rights on the ballot and Georgia with a competitive Senate race. In Iowa, which has competitive races for governor, Senate and three of its four House seats, early voting is down about 6 percent from the same point four years ago.

Reporting based on coverage by The Associated Press, as carried by KCAU 9 News.