U.S. and Israel Draw Up Plans for Possible Post-Midterm Strikes on Iran

The United States and Israel are preparing plans for a possible attack on Iran in early November, after the U.S. midterm elections, according to a person briefed on the two countries’ war planning who spoke to NPR on Thursday.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the preparations. Israel had initially planned to strike Iran in mid-October, about two weeks before Israeli elections on Oct. 27, but President Trump objected, the person said.

According to the account, the U.S. is now amassing forces in the region to be ready to attack by early November. The preparations could also be part of a campaign to pressure Iran into reaching a diplomatic deal. U.S. midterm elections take place on Nov. 3.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is seeking reelection, has campaigned on a threat to topple Iran’s government.

Iran says it is prepared for diplomacy or war

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state media on Thursday, “We are just as prepared for diplomacy as we are for war.”

“Any scenario is conceivable, including the possibility of an attack by the U.S. and Israel,” Araghchi said.

Iranian state media also quoted a security source saying that if Iranian officials or civilian infrastructure were attacked, Iran would retaliate by targeting U.S. interests in the region, as well as the infrastructure and assets of countries participating in the war.

War enters its eighth month with the Strait of Hormuz blocked

The U.S. and Israel launched a war on Iran on Feb. 28, killing its supreme leader and a number of senior Iranian officials, according to NPR’s reporting. Since then, the two sides have failed to uphold a ceasefire agreement and have traded strikes over control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has blocked the waterway since the start of the war, targeting commercial vessels, and the U.S. has responded by imposing a blockade on Iranian ports and its oil shipments. Iranian state media said Thursday that seven oil tankers in the strait were targeted by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, with four catching fire and three hitting naval mines. U.S. News America could not independently verify that claim.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has threatened that if the U.S. and Israel resume attacks, data centers and underwater internet cables in the Gulf could be targeted. Yadollah Javani, the Guard’s deputy for political affairs, said Iran was prepared to destroy internet cables running under the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Americans must leave the region, they no longer have a place here, and they can never restore the situation to what it was before the war,” he said.

Economic fallout spreads across the Gulf

A new International Monetary Fund report says disruptions to energy production, shipping, tourism and trade this year have delivered substantial shocks to Gulf countries, even as higher oil prices offset some of the losses for energy exporters.

The lender expects Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar to see their economies contract by around 16 percent this year, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also in recession. The IMF said that if the war continues and energy supply disruptions persist, oil would average $130 a barrel in 2027.

Both the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3 and Israel’s Oct. 27 vote sit squarely inside the planning window.

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Brent crude climbed 4 percent to settle at $113.17 a barrel on Thursday, its highest closing level since May, after the reports of renewed attack planning.

Reporting based on coverage by NPR (KTTZ, KNKX), the Institute for the Study of War, and Reuters market reporting.