Netanyahu Bloc Leads Israel Vote Count but Remains Short of a Majority, Early Projections Show

With more than half of the vote counted after Tuesday’s election in Israel, projections from Channel 12 and Ynet put Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 55 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, CNN reported. That total is below the 61 seats needed for a governing majority, and below the 68-seat coalition Netanyahu led in the outgoing Knesset. Likud remains the largest single party, according to CNN.

The early count changed the picture from the exit polls. Kan 11 and Channel 13 exit polls had the two main blocs tied at 51-51, Reuters reported, while Channel 12 gave Netanyahu’s bloc a narrow 52-49 edge. None of the exit polls gave either side 61 seats.

Turnout was 77.7 percent, Israel’s Central Elections Committee said, according to Reuters, the highest in more than two decades and about 7 percentage points higher than in 2022.

Opposition arithmetic leaves no simple path

Parties opposed to Netanyahu are on course for 65 seats in total, according to CNN’s account of the Channel 12 and Ynet projections, but they are divided between right, left and center, and between Jewish and Arab parties. Eisenkot’s Yashar party is the largest party in the opposition, projected to win 21 seats, while the Arab parties are projected to win 16 seats, CNN reported.

Eisenkot has set conditions for any partner to join his government, CNN reported, including recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and recognizing Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be dismantled, terms most Arab lawmakers are unlikely to accept. Two of his opposition allies, Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett, have ruled out forming a government with the Arab parties altogether, CNN reported.

Neither leader claimed outright victory. Netanyahu called for the formation of a strong, right-wing national government and said Likud is the largest party in Israel. Eisenkot said the public had voted against Netanyahu continuing to serve as prime minister and called on him to retire from politics, Reuters reported.

What happens next

Reuters reported that final results are expected on Thursday or Friday. Netanyahu stays on as caretaker prime minister while the count is completed and coalition talks begin, and Reuters noted that a deadlock could leave him in office during prolonged negotiations or until another election can be held.

Once results are certified, CNN reported, President Isaac Herzog will hold consultations in which each elected party recommends its choice for prime minister, and he will then task the candidate he thinks is most likely to assemble a 61-seat majority. That candidate has a 28-day deadline, with a likely 14-day extension, to form a government. If that candidate fails, the president passes the mandate to another candidate, and if that effort also fails, the country automatically goes to another round of elections.

Reporting based on coverage by Reuters and CNN.