The Morning Briefing: October 5, 2026

Good morning. The Supreme Court is back on the bench, President Donald Trump is taking the midterm fight into Republican heartland, and Wall Street is betting the Federal Reserve is done raising rates for now. Here is what you need to know to start Monday, October 5, 2026.

Supreme Court opens new term with Big Oil’s bid to kill Boulder’s climate lawsuit

The U.S. Supreme Court opens its new nine-month term on Monday with oral arguments in a major climate case, as Exxon Mobil and Suncor Energy ask the justices to scuttle a lawsuit by Boulder, Colorado, seeking monetary damages for harms caused by climate change. The Trump administration has backed the companies, arguing that federal law precludes Boulder’s state-law claims. Nearly 60 state and local governments have brought similar suits seeking billions of dollars from fossil fuel companies, and a ruling for the companies could lead to many of those cases being dismissed.

The case is the first of several consequential disputes already teed up for the court’s 6-3 conservative majority, with challenges involving Trump’s immigration policies and state-level bans on assault-style rifles to be heard in the coming months, alongside religious-liberty and election-law cases. Read our full report on the new term’s opening case.

Trump takes the midterm fight to Nebraska as registration deadlines hit

Trump will visit Grand Island, Nebraska, on Monday to rally Republicans and promote his economic record, part of a 32-day sprint to the November 3 midterm elections in which he has urged voters to treat the contest as a referendum on his administration. The stop comes as farmers and truckers in the state face sharply higher diesel prices and voters worry about inflation stemming from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.

Republicans face a difficult polling environment: a Reuters/Ipsos poll last month put Trump’s approval at a career-low 32%, with support among Republicans down to 73% from 82% a week earlier, and public polling shows a competitive Senate contest in Nebraska between Republican Pete Ricketts and independent Dan Osborn in a state Trump carried by more than 20 points in 2024. Monday is also the voter registration deadline in Texas, Indiana and several other states ahead of the November 3 general election. Read more on Trump’s approval slide ahead of the midterms.

Markets start the week upbeat as Fed hike bets fade

Stocks got off to a strong start on Monday while the dollar edged lower and bonds steadied, as investors trimmed bets on another Federal Reserve rate increase following cooler-than-expected U.S. jobs data. Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, well below the roughly 90,000 economists expected, while payrolls for July and August were revised down by a combined 60,000 and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Traders now price only about a 22% chance of a Fed hike at this month’s meeting, down from roughly 64% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Japan’s Nikkei rose 2% early Monday, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures advanced. The week’s highlight is Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Fed’s September meeting, when rates were raised amid concerns about elevated energy prices. Read our report on the September jobs data.

Oil flows through Hormuz top pre-war levels — and a food-crisis warning

Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose above pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day, provisional data from ship-tracking firm Kpler showed — despite attacks on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including seven ships hit in the past week. More liquefied natural gas cargoes loaded from Qatar’s Ras Laffan also transited the strait over the weekend, extending a recent increase in traffic even as many vessels make “dark transits” with their tracking transponders switched off.

But the International Chamber of Commerce is warning that the energy shock masks a deeper threat: about one-third of global fertilizer shipments pass through Hormuz, available fertilizer capacity has fallen by nearly 40%, and ICC Secretary-General John Denton estimates cereal prices could rise by up to 80% if the disruption persists, hitting developing economies first. Read our report on the tanker attacks in the strait.

Brazil heads to a Lula–Bolsonaro runoff

Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro will face President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in an October 25 runoff after taking about 47% of valid votes in Sunday’s first round, beating forecasts in most private surveys. Lula, 80, seeking a fourth term, picked up 44.9% with nearly all votes counted, as the campaign’s focus on the cost of living, corruption and insecurity delivered a stronger-than-expected showing for the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

The result pointed to a broader rightward shift, with the Bolsonaro camp also gaining ground in Congress, particularly the Senate — and Brazilian markets were expected to jump on Monday on the prospects of the business-friendly challenger. Read our full report on Brazil’s first round.

49ers and Vikings stay perfect in a wild NFL Sunday

San Francisco and Minnesota both reached 4-0 on Sunday. The 49ers pulled away from Denver 24-14 in Santa Clara behind two Brock Purdy touchdown passes, including a 56-yard screen to George Kittle that clinched it, while the Vikings beat Miami 15-10 on five Will Reichard field goals to keep the Dolphins winless. In Houston, Dallas rallied from 10 points down at halftime to beat the Texans 34-30, with CeeDee Lamb scoring on his 17th reception of the game — for 189 yards — with 40 seconds remaining.

Elsewhere, New England handed Buffalo its first loss, 29-26, on a late Drake Maye touchdown pass and a two-point conversion, and Chicago stuffed the Jets 23-12. The weekend wraps up Monday night with Atlanta at New Orleans. Read our full NFL Sunday roundup.

Compiled from overnight reporting by Reuters and other wire services.