China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1 Trillion in 10 Months as Chip Exports More Than Double

China’s trade surplus passed $1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026, customs data released Tuesday showed, as a worldwide rush to build artificial intelligence infrastructure lifted sales of chips and other high-tech goods.

The surplus reached $1.04 trillion from January through October, according to China’s General Administration of Customs. It is the second year in a row the surplus has topped $1 trillion, and the mark came a month earlier than in 2025, when China ended the year with a record surplus of about $1.2 trillion.

October exports beat forecasts

Exports rose 35.2 percent in October from a year earlier in dollar terms, customs data showed, a touch slower than the 36.3 percent rise in September and ahead of the 33.5 percent increase economists had expected in a Reuters poll. Imports jumped 41.6 percent, far above the 32 percent forecast, and the monthly surplus narrowed to about $105 billion.

Semiconductors drove the gain. Exports of integrated circuits rose 111.1 percent in value in the first 10 months, to $341.1 billion, while shipments of high-tech products rose 47.9 percent. Total exports for the period reached $3.78 trillion, already more than the $3.77 trillion China exported in all of 2025.

Trade tensions stay high

The swelling surplus is likely to add to friction with trading partners, Reuters reported. Leaders in the European Union have called for more curbs on Chinese goods after reaching a deal with Beijing to limit exports of hybrid vehicles to the bloc over the next few years.

China’s surplus with the United States narrowed slightly to $32.71 billion in October, from $34.01 billion in September. Beijing and Washington extended their trade truce by two months on Monday, and Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to meet next week at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, their third meeting this year.

“The risk of additional tariffs and other trade barriers will remain elevated in 2027, particularly as Chinese manufacturers continue expanding their presence in overseas markets,” said Joe Peissel, lead macroeconomist at Trivium China.

The data also showed rare-earth exports edging higher from the previous month, and crude oil imports climbing to their highest level since March. “The contraction in rare-earth export volumes eased last month, suggesting that China may have begun to relax enforcement of some export controls,” said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics.

At home, demand stayed weak. Sluggish spending has pushed Chinese automakers to look abroad, and domestic vehicle sales fell for a 12th straight month in October, according to industry data, even as car exports kept growing. Analysts expect AI-related demand to stay strong into 2027, according to Reuters, though some warn growth could cool once the investment cycle matures.

Reporting based on coverage by Reuters and China’s General Administration of Customs.