CNN Projects Lauren Boebert Will Lose Reelection to Democrat Eileen Laubacher in Colorado

CNN’s Decision Desk projected on Monday that retired Navy Rear Adm. Eileen Laubacher, a Democrat, will defeat Rep. Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. The call flips the state’s most Republican House seat and ends Boebert’s three terms in Congress.

Laubacher led Boebert 48.8% to 47.9% in the latest NBC News results, which use Associated Press vote data, with about 98% of the expected vote counted and roughly 8,500 ballots still outstanding. NBC estimated Boebert would need close to 68% of the remaining vote to catch up. The Associated Press had not called the race as of Monday afternoon, and Boebert had not conceded.

Laubacher, 58, served 34 years in the Navy and retired as a two-star rear admiral in 2024. Her assignments included serving as the U.S. defense attache in New Delhi and as senior director for South Asia on the National Security Council during the Biden administration. The race was her first run for public office. She spent most of her adult life registered as a Republican before becoming unaffiliated and then registering as a Democrat.

A district drawn to be safe

The 4th District covers Colorado’s Eastern Plains and takes in most of Douglas County. President Donald Trump carried it by more than 18 points in 2024, and Boebert won it that year by about 11 points. When Colorado’s independent commission drew the current map in 2021, Republicans held an average advantage of about 25 points in the district, Colorado Public Radio reported. NBC News puts the 2026 swing at nearly 20 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential vote.

Boebert moved to the district after nearly losing her old 3rd District seat in 2022, when she beat Democrat Adam Frisch by 546 votes. She won a crowded 2024 primary in the 4th District with about 43% of the vote, then beat Democrat Trisha Calvarese 53.6% to 42.0% in November.

Laubacher raised $1.9 million in her first quarter as a candidate, Colorado Politics reported, and went on to raise more than 10 times as much as Boebert. CNN reported that she kept her campaign focused on affordability and the national headwinds facing Republicans rather than on Boebert’s national profile.

Recount expected as campaign points to voting patterns

Boebert’s campaign has not accepted the result. Scott Gessler, a former Republican Colorado secretary of state who represents the campaign, said in a statement late Thursday that the campaign was looking into “very unusual voting patterns” and expected the race to go to a recount. The statement did not say what those patterns were, and no evidence of irregularities has been made public.

Colorado triggers an automatic recount only when the margin falls within a narrow threshold tied to the leading candidate’s vote total. As of Friday morning, the gap would have needed to be 923 votes or fewer, less than a third of Laubacher’s actual lead, the Denver Gazette reported.

Boebert, 39, was first elected in 2020 after upsetting five-term Republican Rep. Scott Tipton in a primary. She became one of the most recognizable faces of the House GOP’s MAGA wing, heckled President Joe Biden during his 2022 State of the Union address and, according to CNN, became a recurring source of frustration for Republican speakers Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson.

Trump endorsed Boebert days before the election, calling her a “MAGA Warrior” in a Truth Social post. Earlier this year, after she campaigned with Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie in his primary, Trump called her “dumb” and “weak-minded” and threatened to pull his endorsement. Last year she joined a Democratic push to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein case files despite pressure from the White House and House Republican leaders.

The 4th District was the only Colorado congressional race still uncalled by Friday. The Associated Press and other outlets had already called the neighboring 5th District for Democrat Jessica Killin over Republican Rep. Jeff Crank, giving Colorado Democrats two pickups in seats Republicans held going into Election Day.

Reporting based on coverage by CNN and The Democracy Advocate.