Democrats Lead in 5 of 7 Senate Battlegrounds in Final Times/Siena Polls Before Midterms

Democrats lead their Republican rivals in five of the seven contested states that will help determine control of the Senate, according to a final set of polls before the midterm elections on Nov. 3 from The New York Times and Siena University. The other two races were within the polls’ margins of error.

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed had 53% against Republican Mike Rogers with 42%, the largest lead among the battleground states. The poll was conducted before Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost to El-Sayed in the primary, endorsed Rogers on Nov. 1. In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico had 50% to Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton with 43%. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton had 49% to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall with 44%. Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.

Five leads, two races inside the margin of error

In Maine, Democratic former state Sen. Troy Jackson had 51% to Republican Sen. Susan Collins with 45%. In Ohio, Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown had 49% to Republican Sen. Jon Husted with 44%. In Alaska, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola had 48% to Republican Sen. Daniel S. Sullivan with 46%. In Iowa, Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek had 48% to Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson with 47%. The margins of error in the polls ranged from 4.8 points in Alaska to 3.3 points in Texas.

Republicans dispute the numbers

Republicans disputed that the polls were so lopsided. President Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, campaigned together in Iowa on Nov. 1. “You can dismiss the polls,” Johnson told a rally in Dubuque, Iowa. “The polls are wrong all around the country.”

The elections are Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Reporting based on coverage by USA Today of the New York Times/Siena University polls.