Fox News Moves South Carolina Senate Race to Toss-Up as Poll Puts Graham and Andrews Tied at 48%

Fox News moved the South Carolina Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss-Up on Thursday, a change that puts one of the country’s most reliably Republican states on the list of contests that could decide control of the Senate.

Fox News said in its updated Power Rankings that Republicans already viewed the race as uncomfortably close and that the belief is now widely shared. The update followed a New York Times/Siena poll released Wednesday that showed Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews tied at 48% each among likely voters.

A tie in the latest poll

The Siena Research Institute published the same 48% to 48% result for South Carolina on October 28, as part of a release that also covered Florida and Minnesota. In South Carolina, the poll also showed Republican Alan Wilson leading Democrat Jermaine Johnson 51% to 44% in the governor’s race, a wider margin than the Senate contest.

Fox News said President Donald Trump is headed to South Carolina on Thursday night to campaign for Graham in the Upstate, where she underperformed in her primary runoff against Rep. Ralph Norman. The president’s visit comes days before voters decide the race, and it follows a week in which polling in several Senate contests has tightened.

What the rating change means for the Senate

Fox News still rates the Senate as a toss-up overall, with six states left to decide the majority. In its forecast, Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 46, with 50 seats enough for control because the vice president breaks ties. On a good night for Democrats, Fox News said, the party could reach 54 seats by winning most or all of the toss-up races. On a good night for Republicans, the party could hold up to 52 seats.

South Carolina was one of three Senate races Fox News moved in its latest update. Ohio moved from Toss-Up to Lean Democratic, and Mississippi moved from Solid Republican to Likely Republican. The South Carolina change is the one that most alters the map, because it moves a seat Republicans have long counted as safe into the toss-up column in the final days of the campaign.

The rating is a forecast, not a vote count. The poll behind it is a snapshot of likely voters at one point in the campaign, and the result on election night will depend on turnout and on voters who have not yet made up their minds.

Reporting based on coverage by Fox News and the Siena Research Institute.