Fuel Prices Are Forecast to Hit Their Highest Election-Day Levels Ever as Midterms Approach
The national average for gasoline was $4.20 a gallon and diesel was $6.32 on Friday, according to CNBC, with GasBuddy forecasting the highest prices ever recorded on an election day as voters prepare to vote on November 3.
Fuel prices in the United States are on course to be the highest ever recorded on an election day, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, as cited by CNBC. The national average for gasoline was $4.20 a gallon on Friday, nearly 40% above the same period last year, while diesel was $6.32 a gallon, up about 70% over the past year.
What the numbers show
For comparison, retail gasoline stood at $3.80 a gallon during the 2022 midterm elections, according to AAA data cited by CNBC. A weekly survey from the U.S. Energy Information Administration put gasoline at $4.269 a gallon and diesel at $6.352 a gallon in the week of October 26. Diesel is used in trucking and farming, which is one reason its price is watched closely by businesses and households.
Crude prices also rose ahead of the vote. International Brent crude was up more than 13% in October and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 15%, according to CNBC. De Haan said prices have never been this high this late in a year.
The rise followed the February 28 joint attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. Tehran then struck tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz, which cut oil flows through the waterway. Exports through Hormuz have recovered since the summer as the U.S. military helped ships through the strait, according to CNBC. Attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi Arabian refineries and Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia added to the disruption.
Pledge, response and what comes next
During the 2024 campaign, President Donald Trump promised to bring gasoline below $2 a gallon within his first year in office. In a speech to the New York Economic Club in September 2024, he said his plan would cut energy prices in half or more within 12 months of taking office. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said gas prices will drop drastically once the conflict ends, according to CNBC.
Trump has said he will not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms, but CNBC reported that the market is pricing in the risk of another round of fighting after voting ends on Tuesday. De Haan said further escalation could put upward pressure on prices just ahead of Thanksgiving.
The administration has taken steps aimed at easing fuel costs. Trump issued an executive order to allow truckers to use tax-exempt off-road diesel on U.S. highways and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high fuel prices, according to CNBC. He considered a diesel export ban after lobbying by Sen. Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, to help Iowa farmers, but decided against it because it might also have raised gasoline prices. Trump also struck a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export about 6 million barrels of diesel into the global market through November. Energy analysts cited by CNBC said the volumes are small compared with global demand and will not have a meaningful effect on prices.
Reporting based on coverage by CNBC and QNC News.
