Harvard Poll: 63% of Young Likely Voters Say Their 2026 Vote Is Against Trump
The Harvard Youth Poll, released Oct. 22, found that 33% of Americans ages 18 to 29 say they will definitely vote in the midterms, down from 40% in 2018 and 2022. Among those likely to vote, 63% prefer Democratic candidates, and the cost of living was the top motivator.
Young Americans who plan to vote in the Nov. 3 midterm elections say they are casting their ballots in opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a Harvard University poll released Thursday, even as the share of young people who say they will vote at all has fallen.
The 53rd edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, conducted Sept. 30 to Oct. 7 among 2,024 Americans ages 18 to 29, found that 33% say they will definitely vote in the midterms. That is down from 40% who said the same in the 2018 and 2022 cycles, and the drop is concentrated among young Republicans: 43% of young Republicans said they would vote in 2018 and 46% in 2022; this year the figure is 34%, according to the poll.
Among young Democrats, 50% say they will vote. Among Republicans, 34%. The GOP coalition is split: 50% of MAGA Republicans plan to vote, compared with 29% of non-MAGA Republicans.
Democrats lead, and young men have shifted
Among all young registered voters, 45% prefer Democratic candidates and 24% prefer Republicans, the poll found. Among those likely to vote, the Democratic edge widens to 63% to 26%.
Young men, a group that helped return Trump to the White House in 2024, now break 58% for Democrats and 32% for Republicans. Among young women, 66% prefer Democrats to 21% for Republicans. Rural young voters are the exception: Democrats lead 43% to 42% there.
The poll also found 63% of young Americans who say they will definitely vote describe their vote as in opposition to Trump, while 14% say it is in support of him. Among young voters who prefer Democrats, 51% say their vote is more “against” Republicans than “for” Democrats.
Cost of living tops the list of motivators
Financial concerns were the strongest reasons young people gave for voting. The cost of living was named by 91%; 77% said they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy; almost half said their personal financial situation has worsened. Even 48% of young Republicans disapproved of the current economy, the poll found.
Only a quarter of young Americans expect to be better off than their parents were at the same age, the first time pessimism has outweighed optimism on that question, said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics. Young people named large corporations, AI replacing jobs and billionaire wealth as threats to their financial security.
“Big-picture central finding is that young voters are poised to deliver a sharp rebuke to President Trump, while the broader generation is sending a message to those in power,” Della Volpe said on a press call Oct. 21.
“The challenge I think for leaders is to make life more affordable and give young people concrete reasons to believe that participating in politics and in civic life can improve their futures,” he said.
The poll also found populist leanings: 63% support banning members of Congress and their spouses from trading stocks; 57% support Medicare for All, including 39% of Republicans; 54% favor an annual wealth tax on those making more than $50 million, backed by 42% of Republicans.
Other top motivators were corruption in government (88%), U.S. involvement in wars (83%), health care costs (83%) and freedom in elections (82%). Trust in elections is low: only 34% of young Americans trust that the midterms will be fair and accurate.
Reporting based on coverage by USA Today.
