New Zealand Election Too Close to Call as Campaigns Wrap and Voting Opens Saturday
A final poll puts Labour at 30.7 percent and National at 26.4 percent ahead of Saturday's vote, with the centrist Opportunity Party at 5.1 percent and in position to decide the next government.
New Zealand heads into a general election on Saturday with the result too close to call, after a final poll put the opposition Labour Party narrowly ahead of the governing National Party and left the smaller parties holding the balance of power.
A tight final poll
The Post-Freshwater Strategy poll, released on Friday and conducted with Infrastructure New Zealand, put Labour at 30.7 percent, up two points, against 26.4 percent for National, down 1.2 points. New Zealand First stood at 12 percent, ACT at 9.8 percent and Te Pati Maori at 2 percent. The centrist Opportunity Party polled 5.1 percent, just above the threshold for seats in parliament, which could make it the kingmaker in coalition talks.
Voting closes at 7 p.m. on Saturday, with results expected to start coming in soon after. Advance voting has been open since October 26, and Electoral Commission data showed nearly 1.67 million people had voted through Thursday, more than a third of those eligible.
The parties wrapped up their campaigns on Friday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon told supporters the race would be tight. “It is going to be close. It will be tight, and that’s why you’ve got to get out and make sure you do vote,” he said. Labour leader Chris Hipkins, who served briefly as prime minister before losing to Luxon in 2023, said he was confident of finishing as the largest party. “We’re banking on being the biggest party in Parliament. I’m feeling increasingly confident of that,” he told a press conference. He added that it was too early to discuss possible coalitions.
Coalition talks likely to follow
From midnight, no campaigning or advertising is allowed anywhere until voting closes, and election signs must come down. Media are barred from posting or sharing anything that could sway votes while polling is open. New Zealand’s voting system makes coalitions the norm, and the tight race means one or more smaller parties will almost certainly take part in the next government. Commentators expect it could take weeks for a government to form as parties wait for results to be final and agree on coalition terms.
The campaign was fought over the economy and the cost of living. Labour wants to make the National-led coalition the first one-term government in nearly 50 years. New Zealand has come only slowly out of a long downturn, with growth subdued, household budgets strained and unemployment at 5.7 percent in the third quarter, its highest level in 11 years.
Reporting based on coverage by Reuters and Devdiscourse.
