OPEC+ Keeps November Oil Output Targets Unchanged for a Second Straight Month

Seven core members of OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to keep their oil production targets unchanged for November, extending a pause that began last month as the war involving Iran continues to restrict how much crude Gulf producers can actually ship to world markets.

The decision was made by Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman during a brief virtual meeting, according to the producer group. The same seven countries had already left their October targets untouched at a meeting on September 6, and they are scheduled to meet again on November 1.

Targets steady, shipments still short

On paper, OPEC+ has spent much of 2026 raising its production targets as it unwinds cuts first adopted in 2023. In practice, most of those increases never reached buyers. Fighting linked to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has disrupted exports through the Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf producers have been pumping well below their official ceilings, with exports in recent months running at roughly 60% to 80% of normal levels, according to Reuters.

OPEC data cited by Reuters show the seven core producers pumped about 25 million barrels per day in August. That was up about 630,000 barrels per day from July, but still roughly 5 million barrels per day below the group’s February level, before the war began. About 2 million barrels per day of separate OPEC+ cuts, covering most members of the wider alliance, remain in place.

The result is a market that stays tight even when quotas do not change. Brent crude remained above $100 a barrel heading into the week, compared with about $73 before the war started in late February, even after prices dipped on Friday following a European agreement to release diesel reserves.

No big policy shift expected before 2027

The war has also stalled the group’s review of how much each member is capable of producing, a technical exercise that will shape the quotas countries receive for 2027. With wartime damage, export bottlenecks and uncertain repair timelines making those estimates unreliable, industry sources told Reuters that meaningful changes to output policy are unlikely before next year.

For U.S. drivers and businesses, the decision offers no near-term relief. Energy costs have become a central issue ahead of the November 3 midterm elections, with gasoline, diesel and electricity prices squeezing household budgets. As long as Gulf shipments remain constrained, analysts say, prices will be driven less by what OPEC+ announces in Vienna-style communiqués and more by whether tankers can move safely and predictably through the Persian Gulf.

Reporting based on coverage by Reuters and OPEC.