The Morning Briefing: October 27, 2026
One week before the midterms, Democrats lead in a new national poll, Israel votes, a local ceasefire begins around Oleshky, and the Fed opens its meeting.
Good morning. Here is what to know on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, one week before the November 3 midterm elections.
One week to the midterms, polls point to a hard race for Republicans
Democrats lead Republicans 53 percent to 44 percent among likely voters in a Reuters/Ipsos survey released October 26, and President Donald Trump’s job approval stands at 32 percent in the same survey. The Cook Political Report said October 23 that Democrats are favored outright to win the 218 seats needed for a House majority, with a projected gain of 12 to 22 seats, and Decision Desk HQ put the Democrats’ chance of taking the House at 79 percent on October 26. Early voting is running ahead of the last midterm pace in several states: more than 4 million Texans had voted after one week of early voting, according to ABC13 Houston, and Virginia’s early vote total is almost double the figure at the same point in the last midterm, according to the Virginia Department of Elections.
Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico hold competing rallies in Lubbock, Texas, on Tuesday, with Trump also campaigning in Corpus Christi as he backs Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. On Monday, Trump offered $1 million to anyone whose voter fraud report leads to an arrest and conviction, without saying where the money would come from. An appeals court on Monday declined to block California from counting about 20,000 disputed ballots, leaving a federal district judge to hear the Justice Department’s case on Tuesday. Read more on the Justice Department’s election cases.
Israel votes in its first election since the October 7 attacks
More than 7.3 million Israelis are eligible to vote Tuesday for all 120 seats in the Knesset, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party leads a coalition of right-wing, far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, while former military chief Gadi Eisenkot leads an opposition alliance. Pre-election polls show a tight race, with neither bloc projected to win the 61 seats needed for a majority, so smaller parties and coalition talks could decide who forms the next government. Netanyahu has campaigned on his wartime leadership and his alliance with Trump, while Eisenkot has accused him of “relying on a campaign of fear-mongering, lies and threats.” Read more on the reported rift between Netanyahu and Israel’s army chief.
A local ceasefire starts around Oleshky while strikes go on elsewhere
Russia and Ukraine began a local ceasefire early Tuesday around the Russian-occupied town of Oleshky in southern Ukraine, to allow an aid mission and evacuations for up to 2,000 people stranded there with dwindling food and medicine. Russia said it stopped shelling toward Kherson from 4 a.m. Moscow time, and Ukraine’s human rights commissioner confirmed Ukraine is honoring its commitments. The pause, coordinated with the office of First Lady Melania Trump, is due to last through Saturday or longer. At the same time, strikes hit the Southern Bridge and subway infrastructure in Kyiv on Tuesday, forcing a suspension of traffic, and late Monday attacks damaged university grounds in Kyiv, killing one person and injuring 10, while attacks in Kharkiv killed two people and injured four. Read our full report on the Oleshky ceasefire.
The Fed opens its two-day meeting as markets wait
The Federal Open Market Committee begins a two-day meeting Tuesday, with its decision due Wednesday. Markets price about a 90 percent chance of no rate change this week, and futures put the chance of a December hike above 70 percent. On Monday, the S&P 500 closed at 7,676.77, up 0.70 percent, the Nasdaq closed at 26,169.38, up 0.82 percent, and the Dow closed at 52,361.58, up 0.28 percent, after Anthropic filed for a Nasdaq listing. On Tuesday morning, stock futures were little changed, Brent crude sat near $110 a barrel and close to its highest level since late April, and Coca-Cola, Boeing and PayPal were set to report earnings before the open, with Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon due later in the week. Read more on Anthropic’s IPO filing.
Syria shuts its only crossing with Jordan after airstrikes
Syria closed the Nassib crossing with Jordan on Tuesday, suspending passenger and cargo traffic in both directions, after Jordanian airstrikes on suspected militant sites in Syria’s Daraa province. Jordan said the operation was carried out in coordination with Damascus, while the Syrian government said it opened an investigation into the attacks. A Syrian health official said five civilians, including women and children, were killed. Nassib is the only crossing between Jordan and Syria that handles both passenger and cargo traffic. Read our full report on the crossing closure.
Brewers are one win from their first World Series title
The Milwaukee Brewers beat the Tampa Bay Rays 10-1 in Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night, taking a 3-0 series lead. Milwaukee scored eight runs in the fifth inning, all with two outs, a World Series first, and Jackson Chourio had four hits, giving him eight in three games. Rookie starter Robert Gasser allowed one hit over six scoreless innings and faced the minimum 18 batters. Game 4 is Tuesday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. None of the 25 teams that took a 3-0 lead in a World Series has lost the series. Read our full report on Game 3.
