OPEC+ Keeps December Oil Output Targets Steady as 2027 Quota Talks Approach

OPEC+ oil producers kept December production targets steady on Sunday, confirming expectations that no further policy changes will come until next year, as the group continues to deal with export disruptions from the US-Iran war.

Seven core members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman, made the decision in an online meeting on Sunday, OPEC said in a statement, according to Reuters. Gulf members have been raising exports that were disrupted for months by the conflict, but most are still pumping well below their targets.

The December decision follows the group’s decision to keep November targets unchanged for a second straight month. The group had already kept targets steady for October and November. In September it completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut first agreed in 2023. A separate layer of cuts of about 2 million barrels per day, covering most members, runs through the end of 2026.

The November 29 meeting will set the 2027 framework

All members of the 21-country group are due to meet on November 29, when analysts expect it will decide 2027 quotas, Reuters reported. The group also needs to complete a review of members’ production capacity during the fourth quarter before setting the 2027 baselines that will determine future quotas. That review is now expected to be completed by mid-November, after the war disrupted projects to expand capacity across the Middle East.

“Today’s decision was the easy one,” Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, told Reuters. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”

Leon added that the group “has to plan around huge uncertainty over the US-Iran war, the pace of recovery through the Strait of Hormuz, and the size of the surplus that could emerge once disrupted barrels return.” The International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned of excess supply in 2027 should Gulf flows return to normal, Reuters reported.

Oil prices sit near their highest since April

Oil prices rose more than 2 percent on Friday, with Brent crude settling at almost $118 a barrel, the highest since April, as traders braced for a possible escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections, Reuters reported.

The decision leaves the group’s production targets unchanged for December, with the next policy decision due at the November 29 meeting.

Reporting based on coverage by Reuters.