ASML Raises 2026 Sales Guidance for Third Time as AI Demand for Chips Grows
The Dutch maker of chipmaking machines lifted its 2026 sales outlook to as much as 45 billion euros and said customers are already asking about orders for 2029 and 2030. Its quarterly profit beat expectations even as chip stocks slid.
ASML Holding raised its 2026 sales outlook on Wednesday for the third time this year, saying the artificial-intelligence boom is pushing chipmakers to plan equipment orders years into the future.
The Dutch company now expects 2026 sales of between 44 billion and 45 billion euros ($49.3 billion to $50.4 billion), up from a previous range of 43 billion to 45 billion euros. It also raised its full-year gross margin guidance to roughly 56%, from a prior range of 54% to 56%. ASML holds a near monopoly on the lithography machines used to make the most advanced semiconductors and is the largest company in Europe by market value.
Third-quarter profit beat analyst forecasts. Net profit came in at 4.96 billion euros on revenue of 11.66 billion euros, ahead of the 4.13 billion euros of profit and 11.63 billion euros of revenue analysts had expected, according to a FactSet consensus cited by Barron’s.
The market reaction was muted. ASML’s U.S.-listed shares slipped 0.9% to $1,702.50 in premarket trading Wednesday as a broad selloff in chip stocks continued. The PHLX Semiconductor Index had recorded five straight days of losses on Tuesday and is down close to 5% in October.
Customers look to 2029 and 2030
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet said customers keep raising their short- and medium-term equipment demand forecasts on the strength of their AI investment plans, and that some are already asking about placing orders for 2029 and even 2030.
“With such strong visibility and an order book momentum that continues to increase quarter on quarter this year, we now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” Fouquet said.
The company said it is studying ways to lift capacity beyond the 30% increase already planned for 2028. Its customers include Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Samsung Electronics and Intel, while Micron Technology and South Korea’s SK Hynix are investing heavily in manufacturing capacity. Elon Musk’s Terafab chipmaking operation is also shaping up as a new customer, serving Tesla and SpaceX, according to Barron’s.
China sales and price questions
ASML is barred from exporting its most advanced tools to China and expects Chinese sales to account for about 20% of 2026 revenue. It made a similar forecast a year ago, only for China to end up contributing about a third of 2025 sales, Barron’s noted.
BofA Securities analyst Didier Scemama has raised the possibility that the company will increase prices as orders rise. He has a Buy rating and a $2,915 price target on the company’s U.S. shares, and wrote in a research note that a 5% increase in average selling prices without higher input costs could lift earnings per share by around 10%.
Reporting based on coverage by Barron’s and Dow Jones Newswires.
