Democrats Lead Final Midterm Polls by 8.2 Points as Voters Head to Polls Tuesday
Democrats hold an 8.2-point lead in the RealClearPolling generic ballot average days before the November 3 midterms, with control of the House and Senate on the line and the cost of living named as voters' top concern.
WASHINGTON — Democrats enter the final days before Tuesday’s midterm elections with an 8.2-point lead in national congressional polling, according to the RealClearPolling average of the generic ballot, which puts Democrats at 51.4% and Republicans at 43.2%.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot on November 3. According to The Wall Street Journal, Republicans now hold 219 seats and Democrats hold 214, with two vacancies, so Democrats need a net gain of three seats to take the majority. In the Senate, 35 seats are contested, Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, and Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51.
President Donald Trump’s approval stands at about 37% to 38% in recent polling, with disapproval at about 60% to 61%, according to Zark News’ summary of the final polls. A Marquette Law School poll conducted October 14 to 22 and released October 28 put his approval in Wisconsin at 37% and disapproval at 61%. Poll director Charles Franklin linked the Democratic advantage to enthusiasm and certainty among Democratic voters about turning out, and warned that small shifts could still change close races.
Approval ratings and the cost of living
The cost of living is the top concern for voters, named by 36% of those asked in a Harris poll. In the same poll, 42% said they are worse off than a year ago, while corruption came second at 12%, followed by immigration at 9%, health care at 7% and taxes at 5%. The poll also found 76% believe officials put self-enrichment first. Voters in several states are also weighing rising power bills and data centers as they decide how to vote.
Midterm advertising spending has reached $11.2 billion, the highest ever for a midterm cycle, according to Zark News. The Cook Political Report says the likeliest outcome is Democrats winning between 227 and 240 House seats. On the prediction market Polymarket on Friday, traders gave Democrats a 94% chance of winning the House and a 69% chance of winning the Senate. Prediction markets reflect bets, not surveyed voters.
Record spending and the final campaign push
Recent Senate polling favors Democrats in two watched races: a CNN poll in Texas put Democrat James Talarico at 49% and Republican Ken Paxton at 43%, while in Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed was at 49% and Republican Mike Rogers at 42%.
Trump campaigned on Thursday in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Sen. Darline Graham, who faces Annie Andrews, and told supporters, “We’re going to have a strong Tuesday night,” according to Zark News. Democrats sent former President Barack Obama to Georgia to campaign for Sen. Jon Ossoff, while former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned in swing states and Talarico rallied in Dallas. Polls are snapshots of voter preference, not predictions of results, and control of Congress will be decided race by race.
Reporting based on coverage by Zark News.
