Marist Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton by 2 in Texas Senate Race; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by 4 for Governor
The Oct. 14 Marist survey has Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 45% among likely voters, with Gov. Greg Abbott leading Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% in the governor's race days before early voting begins.
Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 47% to 45% among likely voters in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, according to a Marist poll released Oct. 14, days before early voting begins Oct. 19. The same survey found Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% in the governor’s race.
The Senate contest sits within the poll’s margin of error: 2% of likely voters backed another candidate and 4% were undecided. Among registered voters, Talarico’s lead widened to 4 points, 48% to 44%, though that is down from a 6-point edge in Marist’s September poll. Talarico ran strongest with independents, taking 52% to Paxton’s 30%, but a majority of likely voters, 53%, said they expect Paxton to win the seat regardless of whom they support.
In the governor’s race, Abbott’s 4-point lead among likely voters is also within the margin of error. Among registered voters the two were separated by just 1 point; in September, Hinojosa led Abbott by 3 points among registered voters. Seven in 10 likely voters said they expect Abbott to win. Marist surveyed 1,196 Texas registered voters Oct. 8-11; the margin of error was plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for registered voters and 4.9 points for likely voters.
Other October polls show a close race
The Marist numbers line up with other recent surveys showing a tight Senate contest. The UT/Texas Politics Project poll released Oct. 13 had Talarico ahead 50% to 47%, ReconMR had him up 48% to 44% the same day, UMass Lowell found a 45%-45% tie on Oct. 8, YouGov had Talarico leading 50% to 44% on Oct. 6, the New York Times had him up 51% to 45% on Oct. 3, and Fox News had a 51%-49% Talarico edge on Oct. 1, according to USA Today.
The governor’s race is similarly close across October polls: UT/Texas Politics Project had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 48%, ReconMR had Abbott up 48% to 47%, UMass Lowell had Abbott leading 48% to 44%, YouGov had Hinojosa up 48% to 47%, the New York Times had Hinojosa ahead 49% to 46%, and Fox News had Abbott leading 52% to 47%.
Reporting based on coverage by USA Today.
