Trump Makes Third Texas Trip in a Month for San Antonio Rally With Paxton as Senate Race Tightens

President Donald Trump is set to campaign in San Antonio on Wednesday alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, according to Reuters, marking his third trip to Texas in a month as Republicans work to defend a state they carried easily two years ago but where midterm races have tightened.

The appearance is scheduled for the Freeman Coliseum, with Trump expected to speak at 6 p.m. Central Time, Reuters reported. Paxton, the state attorney general, faces Democrat James Talarico in the race for the seat being vacated by Senator John Cornyn, and recent polling has put Talarico in front.

A stronghold that no longer looks safe

Trump carried Texas by 14 points in the 2024 presidential election, according to Reuters, yet the Senate contest has drawn heavy spending and repeated presidential attention. A Siena College survey released Oct. 3 had Talarico ahead of Paxton, 51% to 45%, among likely voters, according to Reuters, while a New York Times/Siena poll conducted Sept. 21-30 put the margin at 51% to 49%, according to USA Today.

The broader climate is adding pressure. A Reuters/Ipsos survey completed Monday put Trump’s approval at 32%, with Democrats leading Republicans 44% to 37% among registered voters, according to Reuters. USA Today reported that Republicans currently hold the Senate, 53-47, making the Texas seat important to keeping control of the chamber after the Nov. 3 elections.

Trump’s swing is part of a wider push through Republican-leaning states that have become more competitive than expected, including stops in Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska, while Vice President JD Vance has campaigned in Alaska, according to Reuters. In South Texas, Republicans are also defending House seats, and Republican congressional candidate Carlos De La Cruz is expected to speak at the San Antonio event, Reuters reported.

Allies, polls and turnout

Trump backed Paxton in a May party runoff over Cornyn, a choice some party leaders had viewed as riskier, according to Reuters. Texas Governor Greg Abbott plans to skip the San Antonio rally because of other campaign events, Reuters and USA Today reported, while saying the president’s appearances help drive turnout.

Analysts cited by Reuters said rallying core supporters may help Paxton but might not by itself close the gap, and that a loss in a long-Republican state would carry both political and personal costs for Trump after his endorsement. Early voting in Texas is set to begin in about two weeks, according to USA Today.

Reporting based on coverage by Reuters and USA Today.