Democrats Lead Republicans 52-48 in October Harvard CAPS/Harris Midterm Poll as Trump Approval Falls to 39%
The October Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, released October 28, puts Democrats ahead 52-48 in the midterm horserace and puts President Donald Trump's approval at 39%, with voters pessimistic about the economy and inflation one week before the election.
Democrats hold a 52-48 lead over Republicans among general voters in the midterm horserace, according to the October Harvard CAPS/Harris poll released on October 28. The survey was conducted online in the United States on October 24-26 among 2,700 registered voters by The Harris Poll and HarrisX.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating stands at 39%, a three-point drop from last month, according to the poll. His approval is highest on immigration, at 44%, and on fighting crime in America’s cities, also at 44%. It is lowest on inflation, at 33%, on tariffs and trade policy, at 34%, and on the economy, at 34%.
Economy drives the mood
According to the poll, 64% of voters say the economy is on the wrong track, up 7 points from September, and 59% say the country is on the wrong track. Inflation remains the top personal concern for voters. The poll puts Republican Party approval at 41%, a five-year low, Democratic Party approval at 45% and congressional approval at 32%.
On the cost of living, 53% of voters trust Democrats in Congress to deal with the economy over Trump and Republicans in Congress, and 55% trust Democrats more than Republicans to lower the cost of living, according to the poll. Sixty percent say the current state of the economy is due to Trump policies, and 54% say today’s economy is worse than it was under Biden.
Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll and Stagwell chairman and CEO, said: “One week before the midterms elections and voters are feeling pessimistic about the economy and inflation. A small majority believe Democrats can do a better job and disapprove of Trump’s tariffs and foreign policy.”
Turnout and trust in the count
According to the poll, 78% of voters say they will definitely or probably vote in the midterm elections, and 87% say this midterm election is important to them. Fifty-nine percent say their midterm vote is decided, while 12% remain undecided.
Seventy percent of voters say they are confident the midterms will be conducted fairly and accurately, according to the poll. Fifty-six percent say Democrats winning at least one chamber would be a better outcome for the country, and 54% believe Trump will challenge the results of the midterms if Republicans lose.
Reporting based on coverage by Morningstar and the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll release.
